January 10, 2025
Payroll employment climbed by 246 thousand in December after gaining 212 thousand in November. In the past three months the average increase has been 167 thousand.
In addition to hiring workers employers can also alter the length of the workweek for their existing workers. The nonfarm workweek was unchanged in December at 34.3 hours after having been unchanged in November. Prior to the recession the nonfarm workweek was averaging 34.4 hours so it is marginally weaker than it was five years ago.
Job openings have fallen from a record high level of 11.7 million in early 2021 to 8.1 million. Prior to the recession there were about 7.0 million job openings per month versus 8.1 million currently. Today there are 1.1 job openings for every unemployed worker which is roughly where this was prior to the recession.
The change in employment and hours worked are reflected in the aggregate hours index which rose 0.2% in December to 117.1 after having risen 0.1% in November The aggregate hours worked index increased 1.4% in the current quarter which, given a further increase in productivity, should lead to about 2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
Construction employment rose by 8 thousand. Manufacturing employment fell by 13 thousand. Retail trade jobs climbed by 43 thousand. Transportation and warehousing rose by 10 thousand. Info tech jobs increased by 10. Financial sector jobs climbed by 13 thousand. Professional and business services rose by 28 thousand.. Health care jobs climbed by 46 thousand. Social assistance gained 23 thousand. Leisure and hospitality jobs increased by 43 thousand. Government jobs rose by 2 thousand.
GDP growth was 2.8% in the third quarter and we expect 2.5% growth in the fourth quarter followed by 2.9% GDP growth in 2025.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, S.C.
Steve –
In the first two lines, I believe your number for the average is incorrect and should
be 356,000 rather than 234,000.
You area correct Frank. I just changed it. Employment Fridays are tough. So much data to sift through on those days. Need to digest that, write something about each tidbit, and then write the weekly commentary. Easy to miss something.
Thanks for the heads up.
Is there a way to superimpose this data with the number of layoffs over the course of the same timeframe?
I keep hearing that there are a lot more layoffs this year but I don’t know where to verify that. Thanks!
Hi Tina,
I will send you a chart on initial unemployment claims (layoffs) to your e-mail. I would include it here but somehow I cannot figure out how to get these responses to include a chart. The bottom line is that layoffs overall have been dead flat for almost two years. We keep reading about layoffs by various firms, but it appears that those folks who lose their job are easily able to find a job somewhere else.
It could be the the UAW strike is beginning to boost layoffs, but that will presumably be just a temporary jump.
I tried to send the charts to tinacartigane@gmmail.com (shown above). It came back. Changed it to gmail.com. It came back again. If you give me your email address I will resend.