December 6, 2024

Payroll employment rebounded in November by 227 thousand after having risen just 36 thousand in October.  The September and October data were revised  upwards by a total of 56 thousand.  In the past three months the average increase has been 173 thousand.

In addition to hiring workers employers can also alter the length of the workweek for their existing workers.  The nonfarm workweek  rose 0.1 hour in November to 34.3 hours after having declined 0.1 hour in October to 34.3 hours. Prior to the recession the nonfarm workweek was averaging 34.4 hours so it is marginally weaker than it was four years ago.

Job openings have fallen from a record high level of 11.7 million in early 2021 to 7.7 million.  Prior to the recession there were about 7.0 million job openings per month versus 7.7 million currently. Today there are 1.1 job openings for every unemployed worker which is roughly where this was prior to the recession.

The change in employment and hours worked are reflected in the aggregate hours index which rose 0.4% to 116.9 in November after declining 0.3% in October   We now have data for October and November and it appears that aggregate hours worked are likely to increase 0.8% in the current quarter which, given a further increase in productivity, should lead to about 2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter.

Construction employment rose by 10 thousand.   Manufacturing employment rose 22 thousand.  Retail trade jobs fell 28 thousand.  Transportation and warehousing rose by 3 thousand.  Info tech jobs were unchanged.  Financial sector jobs climbed by 17 thousand.  Professional and business services rose by 26 thousand..  Health care jobs climbed by 54 thousand.   Social assistance gained 19 thousand.  Leisure and hospitality jobs increased by 53 thousand.    Government jobs rose by 33 thousand exclusively at the state and local level.

GDP growth was 2.8% in the third quarter and we expect 2.5% growth n the fourth quarter.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, S.C.