March 28, 2025

There are many different measures of inflation, but the one that the Federal Reserve considers to be most important is the personal consumption expenditures deflator, in particular the PCE deflator excluding the volatile food and energy components.

The PCE deflator rose 0.3% in both January and February.  The year-over-year increase now stands at 2.5%.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components the PCE deflator rose 0.4% in January after climbing 0.3% in December. The year-over-year increase is now 2.8%.  This is the inflation measure that the Fed would like to see rise by 2.0%.   The problem is that in the past three months this core measure of inflation has risen at a 3.5% pace.  As a result, we now expect the core PCE to rise 3.3% in 2025 after having risen 2.9% in 2024.  If that forecast is correct there is no way that the Fed can cut rates this year.

The  purchases of Treasury securities by the Fed in 2020 and 2021 caused money supply growth to surge.  We all learned back in our basic economic classes that money growth is the cause of inflation.  However, the length of time between a pickup in money growth and an increase in inflation is both long and variable.  Thus, the earlier increase in  money growth caused the inflation rate to climb well above the Fed’s 2.0% target for a protracted period of time.  However, as the Fed has been running off some of its holdings of U.S. Treasury and mortgage backed securities, the money supply has declined in recent months.  The problem is that the earlier rapid growth pushed the level of M-2 far higher than its trend path would suggest.  At its peak that difference was $4.0 trillion which represented surplus liquidity in the economy.  At the moment that difference is  $0.4 trillion.  If the Fed keeps shrinking the money supply at its current pace, this surplus liquidity should soon be eliminated which should prevent the core inflation rate from growing too quickly in 2025.

We expect to see GDP growth of 0.5% in the first quarter and 2.0% in 2025.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC