December 6, 2024
Private sector employment rebounded in November by 194 thousand after having declined 2 thousand in October. The September and October data were revised upwards by a total of 56 thousand. In the past three months the average increase has been 138 thousand.
In addition to hiring workers employers can also alter the length of the workweek for their existing workers. The nonfarm workweek rose 0.1 hour in November to 34.3 hours after having declined 0.1 hour in October to 34.3 hours. Prior to the recession the nonfarm workweek was averaging 34.4 hours so it is marginally weaker than it was four years ago.
Job openings have fallen from a record high level of 11.7 million in early 2021 to 7.7 million. Prior to the recession there were about 7.0 million job openings per month versus 7.7 million currently. Today there are 1.1 job openings for every unemployed worker which is roughly where this was prior to the recession.
The change in employment and hours worked are reflected in the aggregate hours index which rose 0.4% to 116.9 in November after declining 0.3% in October We now have data for October and November and it appears that aggregate hours worked are likely to increase 0.8% in the current quarter which, given a further increase in productivity, should lead to about 2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
Construction employment rose by 10 thousand. Manufacturing employment rose 22 thousand. Retail trade jobs fell 28 thousand. Transportation and warehousing rose by 3 thousand. Info tech jobs were unchanged. Financial sector jobs climbed by 17 thousand. Professional and business services rose by 26 thousand.. Health care jobs climbed by 54 thousand. Social assistance gained 19 thousand. Leisure and hospitality jobs increased by 53 thousand. Government jobs rose by 33 thousand exclusively at the state and local level.
GDP growth was 2.8% in the third quarter and we expect 2.5% growth n the fourth quarter.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, S.C.
We have seen a change in the way companies are hiring employees. As the owner of the staffing company temp to hire has been a very popular strategy the last several years. Now companies are actually hiring people directly to their payroll and willing to pay fees. That would seem to indicate that they do not expect a downturn in the near future. Good news for all of us.
Thanks for the comment, Neil. From what you said, it certainly suggests that if they do expect a recession it will be short and mild and they will soon need those bodies. But what if rates really do need to go to 6% to slow things down enough to trigger the recession? The outcome may not be quite so mild. We will see.