January 10, 2025
Private sector employment climbed by 223 thousand in December after gaining 182 thousand in November. In the past three months the average increase has been 138 thousand. t
In addition to hiring workers employers can also alter the length of the workweek for their existing workers. The nonfarm workweek was unchanged in December at 34.3 hours after having been unchanged in November. Prior to the recession the nonfarm workweek was averaging 34.4 hours so it is marginally weaker than it was five years ago.
Job openings have fallen from a record high level of 11.7 million in early 2021 to 8.1 million. Prior to the recession there were about 7.0 million job openings per month versus 8.1 million currently. Today there are 1.1 job openings for every unemployed worker which is roughly where this was prior to the recession.
The change in employment and hours worked are reflected in the aggregate hours index which rose 0.2% in December to 117.1 after having risen 0.1% in November The aggregate hours worked index increased 1.4% in the current quarter which, given a further increase in productivity, should lead to about 2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
Construction employment rose by 8 thousand. Manufacturing employment fell by 13 thousand. Retail trade jobs climbed by 43 thousand. Transportation and warehousing rose by 10 thousand. Info tech jobs increased by 10. Financial sector jobs climbed by 13 thousand. Professional and business services rose by 28 thousand.. Health care jobs climbed by 46 thousand. Social assistance gained 23 thousand. Leisure and hospitality jobs increased by 43 thousand. Government jobs rose by 2 thousand.
GDP growth was 2.8% in the third quarter and we expect 2.5% growth in the fourth quarter followed by 2.9% GDP growth in 2025.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, S.C.
We have seen a change in the way companies are hiring employees. As the owner of the staffing company temp to hire has been a very popular strategy the last several years. Now companies are actually hiring people directly to their payroll and willing to pay fees. That would seem to indicate that they do not expect a downturn in the near future. Good news for all of us.
Thanks for the comment, Neil. From what you said, it certainly suggests that if they do expect a recession it will be short and mild and they will soon need those bodies. But what if rates really do need to go to 6% to slow things down enough to trigger the recession? The outcome may not be quite so mild. We will see.