May 15, 2025

 

 

 

 

 

 

Retail sales rose 0.1% in April after having jumped 1.7% in March.   In the past year retail sales have risen 5.2%  Some of the dramatic increase in sales in March and continuing into April could be a rebound from the particularly cold/snowy weather that existed in much of the country in January and a snapback in car sales following the California wildfires in the same month.  Some of the big jump in March may also  represent consumers stocking up on goods prior to the implementation of tariffs.  But at the same time restaurant sales jumped in March and April.  You obviously cannot stock up on dining out.  Our conclusion is that sales remain relatively solid.  Despite being depressed, the consumer remains willing to spend.

Motor vehicle sales declined 0.1% in April after having jumped 5.5% in March. Car sales have risen 9.4% in the past year.

Retail sales ex autos and gas, which eliminates the two most volatile components and is a better gauge of the trend pace of sales rose 0.2% in April after having risen 0.5%  February and 1.1% March.   In the past year this so-called core spending pace has risen 5.4%.

Restaurant sales rose 1.2% in April after having jumped 3.0% in March.   In the past year restaurant sales have risen 7.8%.   Consumers continue to dine out, and are showing no inclination to slow their pace of restaurant dining.

Sales at nonstore retailers rose 0.2% in April after gaining 0.1% in March.   In the past year nonstore sales have risen 7.5%.

The combination of a 0.1% increase in sales with a 0.2% increase in the CPI caused real retail sales to decline 0.2% in April after  having jumped 1.7% in March  Real sales have risen 2.8% in the past year.  It is hard to see any slowdown in the pace of consumer spending from the recent sales data.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC