July 2, 2020
The trade deficit for April widened by $4.8 billion in May to $54.6 billion after having widened by $7.4 billion fin April and by $7.7 billion in March. Exports fell 4.4% in May after having declined 20.5% in April while imports declined by 0.9% in April after having fallen 13.6% in April..
Thus, the deficit in real terms as widened by $18.0 billion in the last three months. As a result we expect the widening of the trade deficit to subtract 9.0% from Q2 GDP. We currently expect GDP to decline 50.0% in that quarter.
The best gauge of global trade lows is the change in the total of both exports and imports. Both categories have been plunged in recent months.