January 29 2026
The trade deficit for November widened by $27.6 billion to $56.8 billion after narrowing by $18.9 billion in October.
Exports fell 3.6% in November to $292.1 billion after having risen 3,0% in October. In the past year exports have risen 5.9%.
Imports rose 5.0% in November to $348.9 billion after having fallen 3.0% in October. In the past year imports have declined 1.9%.
The trade deficit in real terms widened by $23.5 bilion in November to $87.1 billion after having narrowed by $15.1 billion in October.
The trade deficit has been bouncing around in the past several months. If it remains at the November and December it will add about 0.8% to GDP growth in the fourth quarter. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow for forecast for the fourth quarter is 4.2% with the trade component adding 0.7% to that growth rate. For what it is worth we are expecting Q4 GDP growth of 3.8%.
Stephen Slifer
NumberNomics
Charleston, SC
Hi Steve,
I’m a bit confused, has the deficit increased so sharply as a result of overall reduced economic activity? Or is there some other factor at play here? Material costs? or? This seems surprising with the general weakness of the dollar.
Best,
Hi Chris what we are have seen in the recent trade data as well as what happened to trade in the first few months of the year were wildly distorted by the recession and subsequent rebound. The dramatic narrowing of the trade gap earlier did not mean a lot. Nor does the recent rebound. I guess the only point I was trying to make is that the increases in both exports and imports tells us nothing more than the rebound is underway with the recovery in the U.S. currently outpacing the rest of the world.
Ah, that makes sense.
Thanks