March 11, 2025

The  Labor Department reported that job openings rose 232 thousand in January to 7,740 thousand after having declined 523 thousand in December and having risen 416 thousand in November.   The pace of economic activity has remained relatively solid while the labor market has softened very gradually.  Job openings have fallen from their peak of 12,027 thousand in March 2022, but are still above the 7,000 thousand level that existed prior to the recession.

As shown in the chart below, there are currently 1.1 jobs available for every unemployed worker.  Prior to the recession this rate was steady at about 1.2.  So in some sense one could argue that the labor market today has returned to what it was prior to the recession.  However, if one looks at the decade prior to the recession there are typically fewer job openings than there are unemployed workers.  A  ratio of 0.6 would be regarded as normal during that period.

The Labor Department also provides information on hires each month.  Hires rose 19 thousand in January to 5,393 thousand after having risen 67 thousand in December after having declined 43 thousand in November.  Hiring has slowed gradually for the past couple of years.  But if job openings continue to outpace hires, employment should continue to grow for the foreseeable future.

The rate of job openings rose 0.1  in January 4.6.   The rate of hires was unchanged in January at 3.4 thus the ratio of job openings to hires rose slightly to 135.3%, which means that job openings continue to outpace hiring.  If that is true, employment should continue to climb in the months ahead.  Prior to the recession job openings were 15% higher than hires.

The quit rate rose 0.,2 in January to 2.1 after having been unchanged in December at 2.0 after having fallen 0.1 in November.  The willingness to quit one’s job has declined for a couple of years as workers concern about slower growth occurring in the not-too-far-distant future made them slightly less willing to quit their job than they had been.  Prior to the recession the quit rate was 2.3.  It is slightly lower today than it was prior to the recession.

Stephen Slifer

NumberNomics

Charleston, SC