by sslifer | Jun 9, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 9, 2023 Much has been written recently regarding the recent disquieting decline in productivity. The productivity drop suggests that firms are hanging onto more workers than they need. If demand does not soon accelerate, firms will eventually determine that...
by sslifer | Jun 2, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 2, 2023 The monthly employment report is always a key indicator for economists in assessing the degree of economic activity for any given month. It is significant because it is the first solid evidence of what the economy did in the prior month. It has the...
by sslifer | May 26, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 26, 2023 The Fed thinks that a 2.5% funds rate — a 2.0% inflation rate combined with a 0.5% real rate – is roughly neutral. But if inflation is 5.5% rather than 2.0% is a 2.5% funds rate still “neutral”. Of course not. The degree of tightness of Fed...
by sslifer | May 19, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 19, 2023 The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators (LEI) has been falling steadily since December 2021. The index anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around 10 months. Based on this steep slide the Conference Board forecasts a recession...
by sslifer | May 17, 2023 | Housing, NumberNomics Notes
May 17, 2023 Home ownership rose 0.1% in the first quarter to 66.0 after having declined 0.1% in the fourth quarter. Homeownership had been rising gradually for several years before the pandemic hit. It jumped 2.6% in the second quarter of 2020 to 67.9, but has...
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