by sslifer | Jan 13, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 13, 2023 For years the financial markets followed the rule, ”Don’t Fight the Fed”. When investors think the economy and inflation will behave one way but the Fed sees something different, the Fed will eventually win. Today that divergence of opinion is as...
by sslifer | Jan 6, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 6, 2023 The extreme labor shortage that virtually every business in the country is experiencing is not going away. At the end of last year the labor force is estimated to be 2.9 million workers shy of where it should be. Some have died from COVID. Many...
by sslifer | Dec 23, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 23, 2022 A recession is coming sometime in 2023 or 2024. We do not expect it to arrive until the first half of 2024. Why so late? Several reasons. First, the real funds rate is likely to remain negative until the middle of 2023 which means it will have...
by sslifer | Dec 16, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 16, 2022 The markets think they have seen signs of a slower pace of economic activity, evidence that the inflation rate has peaked and is headed lower, and have concluded that the Fed might actually be able to pull off the elusive soft landing. While the Fed...
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