by sslifer | Oct 13, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 13, 2023 The economic situation was already complicated with the resumption of payments on student loans, the ongoing UAW strike, and a dysfunctional Congress with the prospect of a government shutdown looming. But now the outbreak of war in the Middle East...
by sslifer | Oct 6, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 6, 2023 With a surprisingly large 336 thousand increase in payroll employment for September, one can make a plausible case that the Fed will boost the funds rate by 0.25% to 5.75% at the end of this month. We disagree. We are looking for no change in the...
by sslifer | Sep 29, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 29, 2023 When inflation first started to rise in mid-2020 the Federal Reserve told us that we did not need to worry because it was “temporary” and attributable to supply constraints that led to notably higher — but temporary — increases in...
by sslifer | Sep 22, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 22, 2023 This past week the Federal Reserve left the funds rate unchanged at 5.5%, which is exactly what was expected. While the Fed may not have raised the funds rate, the bond market took matters into its own hands and significantly raised every other...
by sslifer | Sep 15, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 15, 2023 As data continue to flow in, third quarter GDP growth seems likely to be a solid 3.5%. But in October as student loan borrowers resume payments on their debt the pace of consumer spending is almost certain to slow. At the same time workers at the...
by sslifer | Sep 12, 2023 | Miscellaneous, NumberNomics Notes
September 12, 2023 Economists like to keep an eye on the amount of leverage amongst corporations. When corporations take on huge amounts of debt in relation to their net worth, any economic downturn will be much more severe than it would otherwise be as corporations...
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