by sslifer | Feb 18, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 18, 2022 The world seems to be expecting war between Russia and Ukraine, and by the time you read this it may have begun. But the world has never encountered the kind of war that is likely to break out in Eastern Europe. There will undoubtedly be an air...
by sslifer | Feb 11, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 11, 2022 There still seems to be a belief that the Fed will quickly bring inflation back to the 2.0% mark within a couple of years. Maybe. But not without a recession. The Fed obviously does not want that outcome. But how exactly to bring inflation back...
by sslifer | Feb 4, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 4, 2022 The January employment report was full of surprises all of which lead to the conclusion that the labor market is extremely tight and the Fed is far behind the curve. Payroll employment rose markedly in January. But COVID and bad weather were...
by sslifer | Jan 28, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 28, 2022 What a week! The pace of economic activity in the winter months is being buffeted by the rise and expected fall in COVID cases and by miserable weather in December and January. These two factors will shift growth from month-to-month but should not...
by sslifer | Jan 21, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 21, 2022 In the past couple of weeks stock prices have fallen 7% and bond yields have risen 0.5%. Layoffs rose in mid-January Air travel has fallen off sharply. Signs of trouble? We do not think so. The economy has hit temporary speed bumps in the form...
by sslifer | Jan 14, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 14, 2022 The surge in COVID cases that began in mid-December took a toll on economic activity in December and is likely to further suppress growth in January. While less deadly than earlier versions of the corona virus, the sheer number of cases has forced...
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