by sslifer | Jun 5, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 5, 2020 Payroll employment rose 2,509 thousand in May which exceeded everyone’s expectation. But this outcome seems to reflect a very slight difference in the timing of when workers returned to work and, for this reason, does not change the overall outlook for...
by sslifer | May 29, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 29, 2019 Two things for you to read this week. First, read the usual weekly article on how the economy touched bottom in the second half of May and has now begun to turn upwards. But also read the piece on consumer spending and personal income. A huge drop in...
by sslifer | May 29, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 29, 2020 Every recent indicator has confirmed that the economy has stopped dead in its tracks. The economy was expanding nicely in January and February but the lock down measures that went into effect in mid-March were so pervasive that GDP declined 5.0% in the...
by sslifer | May 22, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 22, 2020 Modern monetary theory has moved to center stage in the debate about the proper role of monetary policy. Whether you are a strident believer or a ferocious detractor depends largely upon your political persuasion. The left-wing of the Democratic Party...
by sslifer | May 15, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 15, 2020 We are going to see a record-breaking drop in second-quarter GDP. Fiscal stimulus is going to produce an equally astonishing rebound in the third quarter. But this is not the typical recession/recovery scenario. The government caused the recession by...
by sslifer | May 8, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 8, 2020 Given what we know about employment and hours worked, it now seems likely that second quarter GDP will contract at a 60.0% annual rate. The $2.5 trillion in the two already-approved fiscal stimulus packages are designed to get the economy back on track. ...
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