by sslifer | May 8, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 8, 2020 Given what we know about employment and hours worked, it now seems likely that second quarter GDP will contract at a 60.0% annual rate. The $2.5 trillion in the two already-approved fiscal stimulus packages are designed to get the economy back on track. ...
by sslifer | May 1, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 1, 2020 Measures taken by government officials to slow the spread of the corona virus have put the economy into a policy-induced coma. Second quarter GDP is expected to contract by a record-shattering 20-50%. But $2.5 trillion of fiscal stimulus checks will...
by sslifer | Apr 24, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 24, 2020 One of the few things we know is that in recent weeks 26 million Americans have lost their job. This guarantees that the second quarter GDP decline will be record-breaking. We currently anticipate a contraction of 35%. It could be bigger. But whether...
by sslifer | Apr 17, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 17, 2019 At the end of last year crude oil prices were steady at about $63 per barrel. Then the bottom fell out. This week oil traded below $20 per barrel — the lowest since 2002. It was not long ago that low oil prices provided a significant boost to GDP...
by sslifer | Apr 10, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 10, 2020 When we think about the Federal Reserve, we typically think about the role it plays in setting interest rates. But increasingly its role as lender of last resort has become its primary objective. The economic damage in the second quarter of this year...
by sslifer | Apr 3, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 3, 2020 The employment report for March showed a much larger job loss than had been expected as payroll employment declined 701 thousand. However, the bulk of the impact lies ahead. For what it is worth, we expect payroll employment to shrink by 5 million...
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