by sslifer | May 26, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 26, 2023 The Fed thinks that a 2.5% funds rate — a 2.0% inflation rate combined with a 0.5% real rate – is roughly neutral. But if inflation is 5.5% rather than 2.0% is a 2.5% funds rate still “neutral”. Of course not. The degree of tightness of Fed...
by sslifer | May 19, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 19, 2023 The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators (LEI) has been falling steadily since December 2021. The index anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around 10 months. Based on this steep slide the Conference Board forecasts a recession...
by sslifer | May 12, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 12, 2023 Once again our leaders in Washington are playing a dangerous game of chicken with debt limit legislation. Thus far the markets are largely ignoring the issue, and for good reason. Congress has acted on 78 separate occasions since 1960 to raise the debt...
by sslifer | May 5, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 5, 2023 Data for the second quarter are beginning to filter in. One has to squint closely to find signs of further slowing in the pace of economic activity. Payroll employment rose 253 thousand in April. The unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 3.4%. Car sales...
by sslifer | Apr 28, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 28, 2023 One of the biggest economic puzzles today is the surprising divergence between consumer confidence, which has plummeted, and consumer spending which has continued to climb at a moderate pace. That makes absolutely no sense. If we are as scared as we...
by sslifer | Apr 21, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 21, 2023 The biggest mistake the Fed has made in recent years was believing that the run-up in inflation that began once the recession ended in April 2020 was going to be temporary. Fed officials maintained that view for 20 months. It was not until December...
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