by sslifer | Aug 6, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 6, 2021 Every quarter we are surprised by a steady robust pace of GDP growth and the resilience of the stock market. How can that happen? Clearly, a series of stimulus checks combined with ultra-easy Fed policy deserve much of the credit. But let’s not...
by sslifer | Jul 30, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 30, 2021 The biggest news about second quarter GDP was not the slower-than-expected 6.5% GDP growth rate but the extent to which businesses needed to dip into inventories to satisfy demand. Inventories fell $146 billion in the second quarter. Declines of that...
by sslifer | Jul 23, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 23, 2021 The economy is on a roll with no appreciable slowdown in sight. The stock market reaches a new record high level every few weeks. Bond yields are lower than anybody expected with inflation on the rise. With such a heady economic and investment climate...
by sslifer | Jul 9, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 9, 2021 The Fed believes that the recent acceleration in inflation reflects temporary factors such as hiring bonuses, disruptions in the supply chain, and a rebound from prices that were depressed during the recession. That story is beginning to wear thin. Its...
by sslifer | Jul 2, 2021 | Commentary for the Week
July 2, 2021 The economy generated an impressive 850 thousand jobs in June. Having closed out the second quarter on a strong note it appears that robust GDP growth will continue throughout the summer. We now expect 9.0% GDP growth in the second quarter, followed by...
by sslifer | Jun 25, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 25, 2021 New home sales peaked in January and have dropped sharply in each of the past four months. It is tempting to conclude that the rapid increase in home prices is beginning to take a toll on the red hot housing sector. That would be the wrong conclusion. ...
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