by sslifer | Apr 24, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 24, 2020 One of the few things we know is that in recent weeks 26 million Americans have lost their job. This guarantees that the second quarter GDP decline will be record-breaking. We currently anticipate a contraction of 35%. It could be bigger. But whether...
by sslifer | Apr 17, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 17, 2019 At the end of last year crude oil prices were steady at about $63 per barrel. Then the bottom fell out. This week oil traded below $20 per barrel — the lowest since 2002. It was not long ago that low oil prices provided a significant boost to GDP...
by sslifer | Apr 10, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 10, 2020 When we think about the Federal Reserve, we typically think about the role it plays in setting interest rates. But increasingly its role as lender of last resort has become its primary objective. The economic damage in the second quarter of this year...
by sslifer | Apr 3, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 3, 2020 The employment report for March showed a much larger job loss than had been expected as payroll employment declined 701 thousand. However, the bulk of the impact lies ahead. For what it is worth, we expect payroll employment to shrink by 5 million...
by sslifer | Mar 27, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 27, 2020 The quote came from FDR’s first inaugural address in January 1933 as the depression reached its depth. As we find our way through the minefield of difficulties created by the corona virus, we believe that we are paralyzed by unjustified terror. We are...
by sslifer | Mar 20, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 20, 2020 Our government officials in Washington as well as state and local leaders have mounted an all out effort to prevent the spread of the corona virus. That action has stopped the economy dead in its tracks and will almost certainly result in a deep but...
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