by sslifer | Apr 12, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 12, 2019 The IMF recently reduced its 2019 global GDP growth forecast by 0.2% to 3.3% after slicing it 0.2% in October. Its forecasts receive widespread attention because the IMF has the resources and the skills to examine closely the economies of virtually...
by sslifer | Apr 5, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 5, 2019 The economy experienced a number of damaging shocks in the past six months as the stock market plunged in the fourth quarter followed by the protracted government shutdown. As a result, GDP growth in the fourth quarter slipped to 2.2%. We do not yet...
by sslifer | Mar 29, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 29, 2019 The expansion is now within three months of becoming the longest expansion on record. Perhaps for that reason most economists conclude that a recession is lurking by the end of this year and try to find the dark side of every economic indicator. We...
by sslifer | Mar 22, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 22, 2019 In January Fed Chair Powell signaled that Fed policy would be on hold for a while. Most economists thought that meant no rate hike through midyear, but with two rate hikes possible in the second half the funds rate would reach 2.9% by yearend. On...
by sslifer | Mar 15, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 15, 2019 It is clear that first quarter GDP growth will be relatively anemic. We have reduced our forecast from 1.8% to 1.5%. Some economists anticipate even softer growth of perhaps 0.5%. However, the stock market selloff and the government shutdown have...
by sslifer | Mar 8, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 8, 2019 The latest piece of news to rattle the market was the revelation that the trade deficit for goods widened to a record $900 billion last year. We believe that the focus on the magnitude of the trade deficit is misplaced. First of all, we strongly believe...
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