by sslifer | May 18, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 18, 2017 The New York Federal Reserve Bank recently released its quarterly report on consumer finances. On the surface, all is well. Consumer debt expanded at a moderate pace in the first quarter of this year. It rose 3.8% in the past year which is roughly in...
by sslifer | May 11, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 11, 2018 Crude oil prices at $70 are higher than anybody anticipated at the beginning of the year. What is causing the increase in oil prices? What’s next? Does it matter for GDP growth? Inflation? The Fed? Oil’s steady ascent has been caused by a combination...
by sslifer | May 4, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 4, 2018 The unemployment rate declined 0.2% in April to 3.9%. That is the lowest it has been since December 2000. Economists generally believe that the full employment threshold – the rate at which everyone who wants a job has one – is about 4.5%. Surely, the...
by sslifer | Apr 27, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 27, 2018 There are two pieces for you to read this week. The market has begun to worry about a 3.0% rate on the 10-year note. It has also noticed the recent sharp run-up in gasoline prices. It worries about a pickup in the rate of inflation which could become...
by sslifer | Apr 27, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 27, 2017 The Fed is raising short-term interest rates. A rising inflation rate is boosting bond yields. The stock market is sinking. Oh, my. Surely, the end of the expansion must be in sight. Wrong! Somehow, we seem to have forgotten about the economic...
by sslifer | Apr 27, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 25, 2018 Home prices have suddenly begun to surge. Ditto for oil prices. Uh-oh! Is this a sign that the inflation rate is poised to accelerate? Slightly perhaps, but we are not yet ready to sound an alarm. Here’s why. The Case-Shiller Index of home prices...
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