by sslifer | Nov 3, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 3, 2022 The employment report for October confirmed that the monthly gains in employment continue to slow gradually. The 150 thousand increase in employment was held down by the loss of 33 thousand workers in the automobile industry caused by the UAW strike,...
by sslifer | Oct 6, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 6, 2023 With a surprisingly large 336 thousand increase in payroll employment for September, one can make a plausible case that the Fed will boost the funds rate by 0.25% to 5.75% at the end of this month. We disagree. We are looking for no change in the...
by sslifer | Aug 4, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 4, 2023 The economy may finally lose some momentum later this year as student loan debt repayment returns in October and as the recent sharp jump in interest rates should provide at least some further growth moderation later in the fourth quarter and the early...
by sslifer | Jul 28, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 28, 2023 GDP climbed 2.4% in the second quarter, 2.0% in the first quarter and 2.6% in the fourth quarter. Clearly, the economy is on a roll. Economists – including those at the Fed — are quickly abandoning their recession forecasts and concluding that...
by sslifer | Jul 7, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 7, 2023 At midyear 2023 the economists who suggest that the economy will slip into recession in the second half of the year must be feeling nervous. The service sector of the economy rebounded in June. The employment report for June was solid with a 209...
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