by sslifer | May 17, 2022 | Miscellaneous, NumberNomics Notes
May 17, 2022 Firms are always trying to keep their inventories in line with sales. When the economy falls into recession, typically businesses do not cut back production as quickly as sales decline, so the inventory/sales ratio rises sharply — which is exactly...
by sslifer | May 13, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 13, 2022 We got the message. The Fed has convinced us it is going to be tough on inflation. But that tough talk has scared the pants off all of us. Fed officials have suggested the funds rate is going to 2.5% by the end of this year, 3.5% by the end of 2023,...
by sslifer | May 6, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 6, 2022 In our view, it is increasingly clear that the 1.4% GDP decline in the first quarter was largely caused by supply line challenges rather than any significant drop in demand. Early in the second quarter the monthly purchasing managers indexes continue to...
by sslifer | Apr 29, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 29, 2022 First quarter 2022 GDP surprisingly declined 1.4%. But it would be a serious mistake to view the single-quarter decline in GDP as a harbinger of recession. Recessions begin when consumers pull back and cut spending. They have not. Recessions begin...
by sslifer | Apr 22, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 22, 2022 The IMF’s global GDP forecast for 2022 was recently downgraded by 0.8% from 4.4% to 3.6% largely because of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Typically the revisions to IMF projections are 0.2-0.3%. Thus, the negative impact of the war on GDP growth...
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