by sslifer | Dec 23, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 23, 2022 A recession is coming sometime in 2023 or 2024. We do not expect it to arrive until the first half of 2024. Why so late? Several reasons. First, the real funds rate is likely to remain negative until the middle of 2023 which means it will have...
by sslifer | Dec 10, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 10, 2021 As we see it, 2022 is likely to be characterized by surprisingly robust GDP growth (4.9%) and inflation is almost certain to remain far higher than the Fed would like to see (4.8%). But because the Fed continues to believe that the recent run-up in...
by sslifer | Dec 11, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 11, 2020 The most surprising aspect of the economy in 2020 was the extraordinary rebound in growth following the quarantine-induced collapse in economic activity in the second quarter. Jobs growth consistently outpaced expectations which caused the...
by sslifer | Dec 20, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 20, 2019 Throughout 2019 the fear was that slow growth overseas and a weak manufacturing sector could spread and pull the entire economy into recession. The Fed was so nervous it cut rates three times in an effort to prevent that outcome. The outlook for...
by sslifer | Dec 14, 2018 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 14, 2018 Stock market jitters are making investors nervous. We understand why. The expansion is approaching its 10-year anniversary which makes it geriatric. GDP growth overseas has slowed. Home sales have been shrinking steadily for a year. However, we...
by sslifer | Dec 8, 2017 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 8, 2017 It is impossible to overstate the importance of the corporate tax cuts that are on the verge of enactment. Over the next few years the corporate tax cuts should accomplish the following: Raise the economic speed limit from 1.8% to 2.8%. Boost growth...
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