by sslifer | Apr 21, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 21, 2023 The biggest mistake the Fed has made in recent years was believing that the run-up in inflation that began once the recession ended in April 2020 was going to be temporary. Fed officials maintained that view for 20 months. It was not until December...
by sslifer | Mar 24, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 24, 2023 The Federal Reserve as an institution will never say it expects a recession. But Fed governors and Federal Reserve Bank presidents individually may have that expectation. That seems to be the case at the moment. This past week we learned more about...
by sslifer | Mar 17, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 17, 2023 The banking crisis has now swallowed three U.S. institutions — Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank — and threatens First Republic Bank. There was a legitimate fear that other regional banks could have similar difficulties. ...
by sslifer | Mar 10, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 10, 2023 This past week Silicon Valley Bank warned that it was having difficulty and needed to issue additional stock to counter losses on its holdings of securities. That announcement crushed bank stocks and dinged the overall market. This can happen when the...
by sslifer | Mar 3, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 3, 2023 The housing sector was a major drag on the economy in 2022, particularly in the second half of the year when it subtracted 1.2% from GDP growth. But that headwind will disappear in 2023 as steadily falling home prices boost affordability. Home sales...
by sslifer | Feb 24, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 24, 2023 The past few weeks have burst the soft landing bubble. First quarter GDP growth estimates have been rising steadily from 0.5% at the beginning of the year to 2.0-2.5% currently. All inflation measures were revised higher in the final few months of...
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