by sslifer | Aug 25, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 25, 2023 How high must the funds rate go before the Fed says it is done tightening? When might the Fed begin to lower the funds rate? Fed Chair Powell refuses to answer either of those questions for two good reasons. First, the Fed never wants to be locked...
by sslifer | Aug 18, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 18, 2023 The budget problem has arrived. Budget deficits are averaging $2.0 trillion which means that the government must issue an equivalent amount of debt every year to pay its bills. As a result, debt in relation to GDP is expected to climb to 119% by...
by sslifer | Aug 11, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 11, 2023 In the wake of the July CPI data there is a growing perception that inflation is steadily subsiding and that the Fed will not need to increase the funds rate further. We are not so sure. Several factors seem important. First, will the economy slow...
by sslifer | Aug 4, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 4, 2023 The economy may finally lose some momentum later this year as student loan debt repayment returns in October and as the recent sharp jump in interest rates should provide at least some further growth moderation later in the fourth quarter and the early...
by sslifer | Jul 28, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 28, 2023 GDP climbed 2.4% in the second quarter, 2.0% in the first quarter and 2.6% in the fourth quarter. Clearly, the economy is on a roll. Economists – including those at the Fed — are quickly abandoning their recession forecasts and concluding that...
by sslifer | Jul 21, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 21, 2023 After a promising start at the beginning of the year, existing home sales have fallen steadily in recent months to the lowest level in years. On the surface it appears that the housing sector is experiencing serious difficulty. While it is true that...
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