by sslifer | May 20, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 20, 2022 Traveling this week, so just an abbreviated note. Despite high inflation and higher interest rates the economy continues to chug along. That is both good news and bad news. The good news is that the economy seems to be performing well. The bad news is...
by sslifer | May 13, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 13, 2022 We got the message. The Fed has convinced us it is going to be tough on inflation. But that tough talk has scared the pants off all of us. Fed officials have suggested the funds rate is going to 2.5% by the end of this year, 3.5% by the end of 2023,...
by sslifer | May 6, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 6, 2022 In our view, it is increasingly clear that the 1.4% GDP decline in the first quarter was largely caused by supply line challenges rather than any significant drop in demand. Early in the second quarter the monthly purchasing managers indexes continue to...
by sslifer | Apr 29, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 29, 2022 First quarter 2022 GDP surprisingly declined 1.4%. But it would be a serious mistake to view the single-quarter decline in GDP as a harbinger of recession. Recessions begin when consumers pull back and cut spending. They have not. Recessions begin...
by sslifer | Apr 22, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 22, 2022 The IMF’s global GDP forecast for 2022 was recently downgraded by 0.8% from 4.4% to 3.6% largely because of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Typically the revisions to IMF projections are 0.2-0.3%. Thus, the negative impact of the war on GDP growth...
by sslifer | Apr 15, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 15, 2022 Housing Is Still Relatively Affordable Home prices having been rising rapidly and mortgage rates have surged in the first few months of this year. Clearly, housing has become less affordable than it was previously. The impact has been felt largely on...
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