by sslifer | Jan 21, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 21, 2022 In the past couple of weeks stock prices have fallen 7% and bond yields have risen 0.5%. Layoffs rose in mid-January Air travel has fallen off sharply. Signs of trouble? We do not think so. The economy has hit temporary speed bumps in the form...
by sslifer | Jan 14, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 14, 2022 The surge in COVID cases that began in mid-December took a toll on economic activity in December and is likely to further suppress growth in January. While less deadly than earlier versions of the corona virus, the sheer number of cases has forced...
by sslifer | Jan 7, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 7, 2022 The anemic 199 thousand increase in payroll employment in December suggests that improvement in the labor market could be slowing. Nothing could be further from the truth. Workers today are simply reluctant to take jobs with companies. Instead,...
by sslifer | Dec 17, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 17, 2021 At the Fed’s December FOMC meeting it finally recognized that the economy is on solid footing and that the rising inflation rate may not, in fact, be as temporary as it thought previously. It laid out a path of steady rate hikes over the next...
by sslifer | Dec 10, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 10, 2021 As we see it, 2022 is likely to be characterized by surprisingly robust GDP growth (4.9%) and inflation is almost certain to remain far higher than the Fed would like to see (4.8%). But because the Fed continues to believe that the recent run-up in...
by sslifer | Dec 3, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 3, 2021 The November employment report was both surprising and revealing. Payroll employment rose by 210 thousand which was far smaller than the 550 thousand gain that had been expected. Some economists suggest that outcome is a sign of emerging weakness in...
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