by sslifer | Sep 6, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020. Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario. We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons. First, reduced...
by sslifer | Aug 30, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 30, 2019 Trump’s tweets are preventing him from achieving the 3.0% GDP growth he hoped for. Their random nature is unsettling to business leaders whose confidence has been shaken. As a result, investment spending has slowed. Productivity growth should soon...
by sslifer | Aug 26, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 26, 2019 Much has been written about the growing student loan problem in the past couple of months. But, as always seems to be the case, the hype about the dimensions of the problem seems to exceed the reality. It is true that student loans outstanding are...
by sslifer | Aug 23, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 23, 2019 Hi all, I am out of town this week. Will resume commentary next week. Steve Slifer NumberNomics Charleston, SC
by sslifer | Aug 16, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 16, 2019 Both the markets and Fed officials continue to expect significant economic weakness or even a recession. The stock market has fallen 5.0% from its record level set less than a month ago. The yield curve has inverted slightly. A Wall Street Journal...
by sslifer | Aug 9, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 9, 2019 Currently, economists and the Fed are fretting about the fact that short rates are now higher than long rates and the yield curve has “inverted”. The funds rate is at 2.13%. The yield on the 10-year note is 1.7%. Thus, the curve is inverted by about...
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