by sslifer | Aug 2, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 2, 2019 The consensus view is that growth outside the U.S. is crumbling which will, in turn, drastically reduce U.S. GDP growth next year. Then this past week Trump introduced more tariffs on consumer goods from China which will, presumably, exacerbate that...
by sslifer | Jul 26, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 26, 2019 Second quarter GDP growth came in about as advertised at 2.1% after having risen 3.1% in the first quarter. While various categories of GDP growth swung widely in the first two quarters they basically evened out if the two quarters are combined. Thus,...
by sslifer | Jul 19, 2019 | Commentary for the Week
July 19, 2019 Over the next two weeks we will learn a lot about GDP growth and how Fed policy might be implemented in the months ahead. No matter what the Fed does at month end its credibility is at stake. And, depending upon the outcome, our view of the economy’s...
by sslifer | Jul 12, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 12, 2019 Many Fed officials are itching to cut rates. They keep saying that they see the potential for substantially slower GDP growth later this year. But with each passing data release there is no evidence that is happening or is on the verge of happening. It...
by sslifer | Jul 5, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 5, 2019 The markets continue to look for a 0.5% cut in the federal funds rate by yearend. No doubt some members of the Fed’s Open Market Committee continue to lean in that direction. While there remains an expectation that the economy is going to soften...
by sslifer | Jun 28, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 28, 2019 The Fed is split almost equally into two camps. One group expects no change in rates between now and yearend. The competing group expects a 0.5% rate reduction. As we see it, the economy is chugging along at an acceptable pace and while inflation is...
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