Fear Dominates Reality

August 2, 2019 The consensus view is that growth outside the U.S. is crumbling which will, in turn, drastically reduce U.S. GDP growth next year.  Then this past week Trump introduced more tariffs on consumer goods from China which will, presumably, exacerbate that...

Now It Gets Interesting

July 19, 2019 Over the next two weeks we will learn a lot about GDP growth and how Fed policy might be implemented in the months ahead.  No matter what the Fed does at month end its credibility is at stake.  And, depending upon the outcome, our view of the economy’s...

The Case for Lower Rates

June 28, 2019 The Fed is split almost equally into two camps.  One group expects no change in rates between now and yearend.    The competing group expects a 0.5% rate reduction.  As we see it, the economy is chugging along at an acceptable pace and while inflation is...