The Forgotten 70%

September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020.  Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario.  We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons.  First, reduced...

When Will Housing Get with the Program??

February 11, 2011  With each new economic indicator the economic outlook gets stronger and more widespread.  But housing continues to languish.  Why?  When might we expect it to accelerate?   It is no great surprise that the housing market has been the worst since the...

An Emerging Swan?

August 6, 2010  Most economists are painting a rather gloomy outlook for the economy for the balance of this year.  They point to weakness in housing, the modest rate of GDP growth in the second quarter, and less than impressive employment gains.  They worry about a...