by sslifer | Oct 20, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 20, 2023 Consumer sentiment today is far below the pandemic-induced recession level of 2020 and roughly where it was at the low-point of the 2008-09 so-called great recession – the longest and deepest recession since the depression in the 1930’s. One wonders...
by sslifer | Apr 28, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 28, 2023 One of the biggest economic puzzles today is the surprising divergence between consumer confidence, which has plummeted, and consumer spending which has continued to climb at a moderate pace. That makes absolutely no sense. If we are as scared as we...
by sslifer | Jan 22, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 22, 2021 President Biden has proposed an additional fiscal stimulus package of $1.9 trillion. A significant part of the spending takes the form of a $1,400 cash payment to taxpayers on top of the $600 payment that was approved in December and sent out earlier...
by sslifer | Jun 5, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 5, 2020 Payroll employment rose 2,509 thousand in May which exceeded everyone’s expectation. But this outcome seems to reflect a very slight difference in the timing of when workers returned to work and, for this reason, does not change the overall outlook for...
by sslifer | Sep 6, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020. Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario. We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons. First, reduced...
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