Onward and Upward

July 22, 2022 The dance between growth, inflation, and Fed action continues this week as the Fed once again will raise the federal funds rate.  The consensus is for an increase of 0.75% which would put the funds rate at 2.5%.  Whatever the outcome of the meeting, this...

A Long Ways to Go

July 15, 2022 Second quarter GDP growth will be released on Thursday morning, July 28 – the day after the FOMC meeting.  For what it is worth, we expect 0.5% GDP growth in that quarter.  But combining that growth rate with a 1.6% decline in the first quarter paints a...

Consumers Rein in Spending

July 1, 2022 Typically the final look at any quarter’s GDP is a non-event.  And at first blush the recent revision to first quarter GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% appears to be a yawner.  But upon closer inspection one finds that consumer spending— which is  70% of GDP – was...

Excess Reserves

April 4, 2024 In the wake of the economic meltdown caused by the government’s dramatic measures to halt the spread of the corona virus the Fed  leaped into action.  It boosted its balance sheet by about $3.0 trillion in March and April 2020 primarily via...