by sslifer | Jun 24, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 24, 2022 The markets swing daily as the odds of recession rise or fall. Everybody is trying to figure out how high interest rates might need to go to bring inflation back down to the 2.0% mark. Keep in mind that a recession is characterized by declining...
by sslifer | Jun 17, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 17, 2022 While the Fed believes it can pull off a soft landing, the markets are convinced that a recession is coming. And they are probably right. But when? With core CPI inflation likely to be 5.2% at the end of next year, the 3.8% funds rate that the Fed...
by sslifer | Jun 10, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 10, 2022 The Fed and economists like to exclude food and energy prices from their calculation of the underlying rate of inflation because they are quite volatile on a monthly basis. For example, a drought could boost food prices for several months, but they will...
by sslifer | Jun 9, 2022 | Miscellaneous, NumberNomics Notes
June 9, 2022 The trade-weighted value of the dollar, which represents the value of the dollar against the currencies of a broad group of U.S. trading partners has risen 7.7% from where it was at this time last year and it is expected to continue to rise in value...
by sslifer | Jun 3, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 3, 2022 The long-awaited slowdown in the pace of economic activity remains elusive. Jobs are being created at a robust pace. Consumers are spending. Businesses are investing. The housing market has slowed but largely because of a lack of supply rather than a...
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