by sslifer | Jul 15, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 15, 2022 Second quarter GDP growth will be released on Thursday morning, July 28 – the day after the FOMC meeting. For what it is worth, we expect 0.5% GDP growth in that quarter. But combining that growth rate with a 1.6% decline in the first quarter paints a...
by sslifer | Jul 8, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 8, 2022 The June employment report was stronger than what the market had expected. The steady employment gains that continue to average 374 thousand are not painting a picture that says the U.S. economy is currently in recession. During a recession employment...
by sslifer | Jul 1, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 1, 2022 Typically the final look at any quarter’s GDP is a non-event. And at first blush the recent revision to first quarter GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% appears to be a yawner. But upon closer inspection one finds that consumer spending— which is 70% of GDP – was...
by sslifer | Jun 29, 2022 | Federal Reserve, NumberNomics Notes
April 4, 2024 In the wake of the economic meltdown caused by the government’s dramatic measures to halt the spread of the corona virus the Fed leaped into action. It boosted its balance sheet by about $3.0 trillion in March and April 2020 primarily via...
by sslifer | Jun 24, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 24, 2022 The markets swing daily as the odds of recession rise or fall. Everybody is trying to figure out how high interest rates might need to go to bring inflation back down to the 2.0% mark. Keep in mind that a recession is characterized by declining...
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