by sslifer | May 27, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 27, 2022 For months the discussion has focused on the highest inflation rate in 40 years and how to shrink it to the Fed’s desired 2.0% pace. The Fed seems to think it can accomplish that objective by raising the funds rate to 2.75% by the end of this year and...
by sslifer | May 20, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 20, 2022 Traveling this week, so just an abbreviated note. Despite high inflation and higher interest rates the economy continues to chug along. That is both good news and bad news. The good news is that the economy seems to be performing well. The bad news is...
by sslifer | May 17, 2022 | Miscellaneous, NumberNomics Notes
May 17, 2022 Firms are always trying to keep their inventories in line with sales. When the economy falls into recession, typically businesses do not cut back production as quickly as sales decline, so the inventory/sales ratio rises sharply — which is exactly...
by sslifer | May 13, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 13, 2022 We got the message. The Fed has convinced us it is going to be tough on inflation. But that tough talk has scared the pants off all of us. Fed officials have suggested the funds rate is going to 2.5% by the end of this year, 3.5% by the end of 2023,...
by sslifer | May 6, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 6, 2022 In our view, it is increasingly clear that the 1.4% GDP decline in the first quarter was largely caused by supply line challenges rather than any significant drop in demand. Early in the second quarter the monthly purchasing managers indexes continue to...
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