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Inflation Expectations Climb — Bond Yields Surge

by sslifer | Feb 26, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes

February 26, 2021 For the first time in a long while bond market participants are concerned about inflation rising as the result of a combination of factors.  The economy already has a head of steam with about 8.0% GDP growth expected in the first quarter.  The...

Consumer Debt – Growing Slowly, Easily Affordable

by sslifer | Feb 26, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes

February 26, 2021 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently released its quarterly report on consumer debt which rose by $206 billion in the fourth quarter to a record high level of $14.56 trillion, driven in part by a steep increase in mortgage originations. ...

Government Spending – Out of Control?

by sslifer | Feb 19, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes

February 19, 2021 Every year the Congressional Budget Office updates its forecasts of the budget deficit and Treasury debt outstanding for the upcoming 10-year period.  It’s projected deficit for 2021 is $2.3 trillion (10.3% of GDP) which would be the second largest...

Re-achieving Full Employment

by sslifer | Feb 12, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes

February 12, 2021 In a speech to the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chair Powell did a nice job of highlighting the benefits of full employment.  In such a situation benefits accrue to all sexes, races, education, and income levels.  He then noted that the labor...

A Weak Employment Picture?  Nonsense!

by sslifer | Feb 5, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes

February 5, 2021 The employment report for January was generally interpreted as a disappointment because payroll jobs rose by 49 thousand and the December decline, which was originally published as a drop of 140 thousand, was revised to a larger decline of 227...
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