by sslifer | Jun 23, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, Uncategorized
June 23, 2023 With every passing month the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators continues to decline and economists become even more convinced that a recession is on the immediate horizon. The problem is that the economy is not cooperating. Businesses are...
by sslifer | Jun 16, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 16, 2023 We are beginning to wonder if the economy has a lot more momentum than is generally believed at the moment. Virtually every economist on the planet expects the U.S. economy to slip into recession later this year or early in 2024 because, surely, real...
by sslifer | Jun 13, 2023 | Inflation, NumberNomics Notes
June 13, 2023 Gasoline prices fell $0.03 in the week ending June 5 to $3.54 after having risen $0.04 in the previous week. In South Carolina gasoline prices tend to be about $0.25 below the national average or $3.29. The EIA currently expects gasoline prices...
by sslifer | Jun 9, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 9, 2023 Much has been written recently regarding the recent disquieting decline in productivity. The productivity drop suggests that firms are hanging onto more workers than they need. If demand does not soon accelerate, firms will eventually determine that...
by sslifer | Jun 2, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
June 2, 2023 The monthly employment report is always a key indicator for economists in assessing the degree of economic activity for any given month. It is significant because it is the first solid evidence of what the economy did in the prior month. It has the...
by sslifer | May 26, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 26, 2023 The Fed thinks that a 2.5% funds rate — a 2.0% inflation rate combined with a 0.5% real rate – is roughly neutral. But if inflation is 5.5% rather than 2.0% is a 2.5% funds rate still “neutral”. Of course not. The degree of tightness of Fed...
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