by sslifer | May 6, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 6, 2022 In our view, it is increasingly clear that the 1.4% GDP decline in the first quarter was largely caused by supply line challenges rather than any significant drop in demand. Early in the second quarter the monthly purchasing managers indexes continue to...
by sslifer | Apr 29, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 29, 2022 First quarter 2022 GDP surprisingly declined 1.4%. But it would be a serious mistake to view the single-quarter decline in GDP as a harbinger of recession. Recessions begin when consumers pull back and cut spending. They have not. Recessions begin...
by sslifer | Apr 22, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 22, 2022 The IMF’s global GDP forecast for 2022 was recently downgraded by 0.8% from 4.4% to 3.6% largely because of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Typically the revisions to IMF projections are 0.2-0.3%. Thus, the negative impact of the war on GDP growth...
by sslifer | Apr 15, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 15, 2022 Housing Is Still Relatively Affordable Home prices having been rising rapidly and mortgage rates have surged in the first few months of this year. Clearly, housing has become less affordable than it was previously. The impact has been felt largely on...
by sslifer | Apr 8, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 8, 2022 With a little help from Fed officials the markets finally woke up to the fact that the Fed is far behind the curve and will need to act far more aggressively than Powell described in mid-March. Based on speeches given last week the Fed seems intent on...
by sslifer | Apr 1, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 1, 2022 The March employment report indicates that the economy continued to expand at a moderate pace in March. GDP growth in the first quarter was hit early by COVID difficulties and later by the outbreak of war. But yet jobs climbed by 431 thousand in March...
Follow Me