by sslifer | Jan 7, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 7, 2022 The anemic 199 thousand increase in payroll employment in December suggests that improvement in the labor market could be slowing. Nothing could be further from the truth. Workers today are simply reluctant to take jobs with companies. Instead,...
by sslifer | Dec 17, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 17, 2021 At the Fed’s December FOMC meeting it finally recognized that the economy is on solid footing and that the rising inflation rate may not, in fact, be as temporary as it thought previously. It laid out a path of steady rate hikes over the next...
by sslifer | Dec 10, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 10, 2021 As we see it, 2022 is likely to be characterized by surprisingly robust GDP growth (4.9%) and inflation is almost certain to remain far higher than the Fed would like to see (4.8%). But because the Fed continues to believe that the recent run-up in...
by sslifer | Dec 3, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 3, 2021 The November employment report was both surprising and revealing. Payroll employment rose by 210 thousand which was far smaller than the 550 thousand gain that had been expected. Some economists suggest that outcome is a sign of emerging weakness in...
by sslifer | Nov 19, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 19, 2022 Most economists expect GDP growth to slow next year in part because the excessive government stimulus provided in the first few months of this year will continue to disappear. Others are concerned that the steady drumbeat of higher inflation will...
by sslifer | Nov 12, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 12, 2012 The September CPI report made it clear that the recent burst of inflation is not going away any time soon and may be getting worse. This should not be a great surprise but it is, apparently, to Fed officials. Maybe the unexpected September data...
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