by sslifer | May 12, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 12, 2023 Once again our leaders in Washington are playing a dangerous game of chicken with debt limit legislation. Thus far the markets are largely ignoring the issue, and for good reason. Congress has acted on 78 separate occasions since 1960 to raise the debt...
by sslifer | May 5, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 5, 2023 Data for the second quarter are beginning to filter in. One has to squint closely to find signs of further slowing in the pace of economic activity. Payroll employment rose 253 thousand in April. The unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 3.4%. Car sales...
by sslifer | Apr 28, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 28, 2023 One of the biggest economic puzzles today is the surprising divergence between consumer confidence, which has plummeted, and consumer spending which has continued to climb at a moderate pace. That makes absolutely no sense. If we are as scared as we...
by sslifer | Apr 21, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 21, 2023 The biggest mistake the Fed has made in recent years was believing that the run-up in inflation that began once the recession ended in April 2020 was going to be temporary. Fed officials maintained that view for 20 months. It was not until December...
by sslifer | Mar 24, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 24, 2023 The Federal Reserve as an institution will never say it expects a recession. But Fed governors and Federal Reserve Bank presidents individually may have that expectation. That seems to be the case at the moment. This past week we learned more about...
by sslifer | Mar 17, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 17, 2023 The banking crisis has now swallowed three U.S. institutions — Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank — and threatens First Republic Bank. There was a legitimate fear that other regional banks could have similar difficulties. ...
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