by sslifer | Jan 6, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 6, 2023 The extreme labor shortage that virtually every business in the country is experiencing is not going away. At the end of last year the labor force is estimated to be 2.9 million workers shy of where it should be. Some have died from COVID. Many...
by sslifer | Dec 23, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 23, 2022 A recession is coming sometime in 2023 or 2024. We do not expect it to arrive until the first half of 2024. Why so late? Several reasons. First, the real funds rate is likely to remain negative until the middle of 2023 which means it will have...
by sslifer | Dec 16, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 16, 2022 The markets think they have seen signs of a slower pace of economic activity, evidence that the inflation rate has peaked and is headed lower, and have concluded that the Fed might actually be able to pull off the elusive soft landing. While the Fed...
by sslifer | Dec 9, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 9, 2022 Everybody keeps worrying about a “recession”. That implies all recessions are alike. They are not. There are recessions. And Recessions. And RECESSIONS. They can be barely noticeable (like 2000), or devastating (like 2008-2009). So while...
by sslifer | Dec 2, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
2023 Economic Outlook Conference SOLD OUT In times of uncertainty whether you are running a business or planning your investments, knowledge can be your most valuable asset. Stephen Slifer, Owner and Chief Economist at NumberNomics will provide insight...
by sslifer | Dec 2, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 2, 2022 The world is focused on the combination of GDP growth, inflation, and expected Fed action, and certainly those topics are important. But there has been little discussion of the damage done by the government’s debt explosion in the past couple of...
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