by sslifer | May 14, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 14, 2021 The grand arbiter of recession dating is the National Bureau of Economic Research. It determines the exact month that expansions and recessions get underway and end. On June 8 of last year it indicated that the decade long expansion ended in February...
by sslifer | May 7, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 7, 2021 Payroll employment rose 266 thousand in April which was far smaller than the 950 thousand increase that had been expected. Firms are struggling to find an adequate number of workers to satisfy the growing demand. To a large extent the shortfall can be...
by sslifer | Apr 30, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 30, 2021 At 6.4%, GDP growth in the first quarter was about in line with expectations. But three things were not anticipated. First, the demand side of the economy was turbocharged. Essentially, the government primed the pump with two rounds of checks to...
by sslifer | Apr 23, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 23, 2021 The Fed claims that we are seeing a temporary runup in inflation which will eventually dissipate and settle in at a pace slightly above its 2.0% target. Perhaps. But our fear is that we could see a sustained increase in inflation in excess of what the...
by sslifer | Apr 16, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 16, 2021 There can be little doubt that the demand side of the economy is on fire. Retail sales registered an almost double-digit gain in March. Home sales are climbing at the fastest pace since 2006. But the production side of the economy is struggling to...
by sslifer | Apr 9, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 9, 2021 The news from Europe today is focused on continuing lockdowns in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain as a renewed wave of COVID inflections spreads across the continent. The prospects for Asia are being held in check by the so-called Asian Five countries...
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