by sslifer | Sep 11, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 11, 2020 The Congressional Budget Office recently released its updated 10-year budget forecast. The budget deficit for the current fiscal year will be $3.3 trillion. It remains in excess of $1.0 trillion every year between now and 2030. Each year that the...
by sslifer | Sep 11, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
As I sit here at my desk this morning, I remember that I was doing the same thing at 8:46 a.m. on September 11, 2001 — sitting in my Lehman Brothers office on the 10th floor of the American Express Tower of the World Financial Center checking the screens trying...
by sslifer | Sep 4, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 4, 2020 The economy continues to recover far more quickly than most economists had expected. Previously, we expected a GDP rebound in the third quarter of 28%. The consensus was for an increase of about 15.0%. We remain at 28% but the Atlanta Fed just...
by sslifer | Aug 28, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 28, 2020 In what has been billed as a “landmark decision”, the Fed this week appears to have made sweeping changes in how it will conduct monetary policy. Basically, the Fed said it was now willing to tolerate inflation above its desired 2.0% pace as long as...
by sslifer | Aug 21, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 21, 2020 While the economy contracted at breath-taking speed in March and April, it has turned upwards more quickly and with more vigor than most economists expected. Clearly, the source of the rebound is the fiscal stimulus money that injected $3.0 trillion...
by sslifer | Aug 14, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 14, 2020 As the Fed continues to purchase billions of dollars of U.S. Treasury securities each week, market participants are becoming concerned about a resurgence of inflation. That may happen eventually, but not yet. The economy has too much slack for there...
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