by sslifer | Dec 23, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 23, 2022 A recession is coming sometime in 2023 or 2024. We do not expect it to arrive until the first half of 2024. Why so late? Several reasons. First, the real funds rate is likely to remain negative until the middle of 2023 which means it will have...
by sslifer | Nov 11, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 11, 2022 The CPI for October came in far below what had been expected and the stock and bond markets staged powerful rallies. The S&P 500 index jumped 5.5% in a single day. The yield on the 10-year note fell 0.33%. to 3.82%. While the inflation rate...
by sslifer | Oct 28, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 28, 2022 Consumer sentiment is currently far below the level that existed when COVID was spreading rapidly in the spring of 2020, and is roughly on a par with where it was when the economy was experiencing the so-called “Great Recession” in 2008-09. Typically...
by sslifer | Sep 30, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 30, 2022 We continue to believe that consumer and business sentiment ratcheted downwards after September 21 when Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the Fed was willing to tolerate a recession as an unfortunate consequence of its effort to reduce inflation. ...
by sslifer | Sep 23, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 23, 2022 The outcome of the Fed’s meeting this past week heightened a fear factor that had been percolating for months. It was not what the Fed did by raising the funds rate by 0.75%. That was largely expected. The scary part was what Fed Chair Powell...
Follow Me