by sslifer | Sep 6, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020. Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario. We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons. First, reduced...
by sslifer | Jul 26, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 26, 2019 Second quarter GDP growth came in about as advertised at 2.1% after having risen 3.1% in the first quarter. While various categories of GDP growth swung widely in the first two quarters they basically evened out if the two quarters are combined. Thus,...
by sslifer | Jul 28, 2017 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 28, 2017 Second quarter GDP growth came in at 2.6% which was roughly in line with what had been expected. More importantly, the mix of spending was positive and portends a solid pace of expansion in the quarters ahead. Consumer spending which is about two-thirds...
by sslifer | Jan 24, 2014 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 24, 2014 Student loans continue to grow quickly and now we learn that the delinquency rate has been on the rise while delinquency rates for all other types of consumer debt have been shrinking. Is this a bubble in the making? We don’t think so because...
by sslifer | Dec 16, 2011 | Commentary for the Week, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 16, 2011 As 2011 comes to a close the economy appears to be emerging from the doldrums and is on track to significantly improve its performance in 2012. Last year the economy got hammered early in the year by civil unrest in many North African countries...
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