by sslifer | Jan 12, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 12, 2024 The next move by the Fed will be to lower interest rates. But when? Before the Fed begins to reduce the fed funds rate, it will first stop shrinking its balance sheet. It has been letting some securities mature each month without being replaced in...
by sslifer | Jan 5, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 5, 2024 The very early economic data reported for December were confusing to say the least. Payroll employment climbed 216 thousand in December which was bigger than anticipated, but the civilian employment measure used in calculating the unemployment rate...
by sslifer | Dec 15, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 15, 2023 Looking ahead to 2024 the economy should largely shrug off the remaining impact of high interest rates and not slip into recession. Inflation should continue to trend lower but its rate of descent will be less pronounced than in this past year. It...
by sslifer | Dec 8, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 8, 2023 The employment report for November defied expectations as the economy generated 199 thousand jobs and the unemployment rate fell 0.2% to 3.7%. At the same time, consumer sentiment jumped 13% in December and is now close to its highest level in two...
by sslifer | Nov 17, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 17, 2023 The CPI registered no change in October which is encouraging because the CPI has risen every month since May 2020. The 12-month increase in the CPI has plunged from a peak of 9.0% to the 3.2% mark. The core rate has dropped from 6.5% to 4.0%. ...
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