Homebuilder Confidence

September 17, 2019 .Homebuilder confidence rose 1 point in September to 68 after having risen 2 points in August.  While its current level is somewhat below the readings of 70-75  at this time last  year, a level of 68 is indicative of a solid level of confidence...

Solving the Wrong Problem

September 13, 2019 The European Central Bank provided a surprise dose of monetary stimulus this past week.  Not only did it cut interest rates, it announced a new bond-buying program designed to get the economy going.   However, policy makers in Europe and the U.S....

Consumer Sentiment

September 13, 2019 The final estimate of consumer sentiment for September rose by a modest 2.2 points in September to 92.0 after having fallen 8.6 points in August .  Despite the drop the levels for consumer sentiment  in August and September are still quite lofty. ...

The Forgotten 70%

September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020.  Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario.  We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons.  First, reduced...

Private Employment

September 6, 2019 .Private employment for August rose 96 thousand after having risen 131 thousand in July and 161 thousand in June.   A better reading of what is truly going on is typically represented by the  3-month moving average of private employment which is now...