by sslifer | Apr 23, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 23, 2021 The Fed claims that we are seeing a temporary runup in inflation which will eventually dissipate and settle in at a pace slightly above its 2.0% target. Perhaps. But our fear is that we could see a sustained increase in inflation in excess of what the...
by sslifer | Apr 2, 2021 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 2, 2021 The jobs gains in February and March reflect the steady re-opening of the country as the pandemic is brought under control. For this reason alone, economic growth in the first and second quarters of this year is going to explode as previously unemployed...
by sslifer | Dec 11, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 11, 2020 The most surprising aspect of the economy in 2020 was the extraordinary rebound in growth following the quarantine-induced collapse in economic activity in the second quarter. Jobs growth consistently outpaced expectations which caused the...
by sslifer | Aug 7, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
August 7, 2020 After shrinking by 32.9% in the second quarter we all want to know the extent of the GDP rebound in the third quarter. Is the economy recovering nicely? Or was its recent rebound buoyed by the $1,200 refund checks which means the economy could stall...
by sslifer | Jul 31, 2020 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
July 31, 2020 GDP fell 32.9% in the second quarter. No great surprise. Growth will rebound in the third quarter, but how big is big? The early consensus appears to be for third quarter growth of 15%. We are much more optimistic and anticipate a GDP jump of 32%. ...
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