by sslifer | Nov 1, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 1, 2019 Occasionally, a single piece of information can alter the economic outlook. As has been the case fairly often in the past, the catalyst is the employment report. That was certainly true this time with the payroll employment data for October. ...
by sslifer | Oct 4, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 4, 2019 A strong consensus has emerged that the economy has softened considerably which many people think will result in a recession by the end of next year. We could not disagree more. It seems to us that most economists are viewing slower employment growth...
by sslifer | Sep 6, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020. Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario. We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons. First, reduced...
by sslifer | Apr 5, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
April 5, 2019 The economy experienced a number of damaging shocks in the past six months as the stock market plunged in the fourth quarter followed by the protracted government shutdown. As a result, GDP growth in the fourth quarter slipped to 2.2%. We do not yet...
by sslifer | Mar 29, 2019 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 29, 2019 The expansion is now within three months of becoming the longest expansion on record. Perhaps for that reason most economists conclude that a recession is lurking by the end of this year and try to find the dark side of every economic indicator. We...
Follow Me