Solving the Wrong Problem

September 13, 2019 The European Central Bank provided a surprise dose of monetary stimulus this past week.  Not only did it cut interest rates, it announced a new bond-buying program designed to get the economy going.   However, policy makers in Europe and the U.S....

The Forgotten 70%

September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020.  Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario.  We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons.  First, reduced...

Car and Truck Sales

September 3, 2019 Unit car and truck sales rose 0.7% in August to a 17.0 million paced after having declined 2.0% in July.    During the last year car sales have risen 0.7%.  Car sales have been basically flat for the past couple of years and should continue to be...

Personal Income and Consumption Expenditures — Monthly

August 30, 2019 Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.6% in July after having climbed 0.3% in June.  Over the course of the past year consumer spending has risen 4.1%.  What we are really interested in is consumption spending in real terms (i.e., after adjustment...