Solving the Wrong Problem

September 13, 2019 The European Central Bank provided a surprise dose of monetary stimulus this past week.  Not only did it cut interest rates, it announced a new bond-buying program designed to get the economy going.   However, policy makers in Europe and the U.S....

The Forgotten 70%

September 6, 2019 The consensus view is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased the risk of recession in 2020.  Even the Federal Reserve seems to buy into that scenario.  We continue to disagree with that conclusion for two reasons.  First, reduced...

Nonfarm Workweek

September 6, 2019 In any given month employers can boost output by either additional hiring or by lengthening the number of  hours that their employees work.  Payroll employment for August rose 130 thousand after having risen 159 thousand in July and 178 thousand in...

Car and Truck Sales

September 3, 2019 Unit car and truck sales rose 0.7% in August to a 17.0 million paced after having declined 2.0% in July.    During the last year car sales have risen 0.7%.  Car sales have been basically flat for the past couple of years and should continue to be...