by sslifer | Dec 23, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes, The Year Ahead Outlook
December 23, 2022 A recession is coming sometime in 2023 or 2024. We do not expect it to arrive until the first half of 2024. Why so late? Several reasons. First, the real funds rate is likely to remain negative until the middle of 2023 which means it will have...
by sslifer | Dec 16, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 16, 2022 The markets think they have seen signs of a slower pace of economic activity, evidence that the inflation rate has peaked and is headed lower, and have concluded that the Fed might actually be able to pull off the elusive soft landing. While the Fed...
by sslifer | Dec 9, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
December 9, 2022 Everybody keeps worrying about a “recession”. That implies all recessions are alike. They are not. There are recessions. And Recessions. And RECESSIONS. They can be barely noticeable (like 2000), or devastating (like 2008-2009). So while...
by sslifer | Nov 11, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
November 11, 2022 The CPI for October came in far below what had been expected and the stock and bond markets staged powerful rallies. The S&P 500 index jumped 5.5% in a single day. The yield on the 10-year note fell 0.33%. to 3.82%. While the inflation rate...
by sslifer | Oct 28, 2022 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 28, 2022 Consumer sentiment is currently far below the level that existed when COVID was spreading rapidly in the spring of 2020, and is roughly on a par with where it was when the economy was experiencing the so-called “Great Recession” in 2008-09. Typically...
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