When Will It End?

May 19, 2023 The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators (LEI) has been falling steadily since December 2021. The index anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around 10 months.  Based on this steep slide the Conference Board forecasts a recession...

Here We Go Again

May 12, 2023 Once again our leaders in Washington are playing a dangerous game of chicken with debt limit legislation.  Thus far the markets are largely ignoring the issue, and for good reason.  Congress has acted on 78 separate occasions since 1960 to raise the debt...

Perception Matters

March 17, 2023 The banking crisis has now swallowed three U.S. institutions — Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank — and threatens First Republic Bank.  There was a legitimate fear that other regional banks could have similar difficulties. ...