by sslifer | Feb 24, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 24, 2023 The past few weeks have burst the soft landing bubble. First quarter GDP growth estimates have been rising steadily from 0.5% at the beginning of the year to 2.0-2.5% currently. All inflation measures were revised higher in the final few months of...
by sslifer | Feb 17, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 17, 2023 One of the most perplexing aspects of today’s economy is the enduring strength of the labor market. The three-month average increase of 356 thousand jobs is far larger than anyone expected. The most often cited explanation is that given the extreme...
by sslifer | Feb 10, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 10, 2023 One of the many economic mysteries since the economy dipped into recession in March 2020 is, where did all the workers go? The labor force at the beginning of the recession was 164.5 million workers. This represents the number of people who were...
by sslifer | Feb 3, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 3, 2023 The economy may be softening, but you get little support for such an argument from the January employment report which was unambiguously strong. That raises several questions. Will growth slow enough to bring down the inflation rate? Will...
by sslifer | Jan 27, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
January 27, 2023 GDP expanded at a 3.2% growth rate in the third quarter and a solid 2.9% pace in the fourth quarter. But those results are history. They tell us nothing about what is happening currently. We know that economic activity plunged in December —...
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