by sslifer | May 26, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 26, 2023 The Fed thinks that a 2.5% funds rate — a 2.0% inflation rate combined with a 0.5% real rate – is roughly neutral. But if inflation is 5.5% rather than 2.0% is a 2.5% funds rate still “neutral”. Of course not. The degree of tightness of Fed...
by sslifer | May 19, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 19, 2023 The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators (LEI) has been falling steadily since December 2021. The index anticipates turning points in the business cycle by around 10 months. Based on this steep slide the Conference Board forecasts a recession...
by sslifer | May 17, 2023 | Housing, NumberNomics Notes
May 17, 2023 Home ownership rose 0.1% in the first quarter to 66.0 after having declined 0.1% in the fourth quarter. Homeownership had been rising gradually for several years before the pandemic hit. It jumped 2.6% in the second quarter of 2020 to 67.9, but has...
by sslifer | May 12, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 12, 2023 Once again our leaders in Washington are playing a dangerous game of chicken with debt limit legislation. Thus far the markets are largely ignoring the issue, and for good reason. Congress has acted on 78 separate occasions since 1960 to raise the debt...
by sslifer | May 5, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
May 5, 2023 Data for the second quarter are beginning to filter in. One has to squint closely to find signs of further slowing in the pace of economic activity. Payroll employment rose 253 thousand in April. The unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 3.4%. Car sales...
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