by sslifer | Mar 15, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 15, 2024 We have written frequently about how the Fed’s temporary run-up in inflation turned out not to be temporary. Because wages have not kept pace with the jump in prices, consumer purchasing power has been reduced. This has soured consumer attitudes...
by sslifer | Mar 8, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 8, 2024 Every month employers have a choice. If demand remains solid they can either hire more workers, or work their existing employees longer hours. If in any given month economists know how many people are working and how many hours they worked, they can...
by sslifer | Mar 1, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
March 1, 2024 The Congressional Budget Office currently estimates potential GDP growth in the U.S. for the next decade to be 2.0% — 0.6% growth in the labor force plus 1.4% growth in productivity. Potential GDP growth can be thought of as the economy’s speed...
by sslifer | Feb 23, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 23, 2024 After peaking at 9.0% in mid-2022 the CPI inflation rate has fallen rapidly to 3.1%. A significant portion of this faster-then-expected slowdown has been attributable to falling oil prices. A couple of factors combined to make that happen. First,...
by sslifer | Feb 16, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 16, 2023 Market participants have finally realized that seven rate cuts in 2024 were not going to happen. They now anticipate four. That seems far more reasonable. There is simply no reason for the Fed to rush. Fourth quarter GDP growth was robust at...
by sslifer | Feb 9, 2024 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
February 9, 2024 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York provides an in depth look at consumer borrowing every quarter. Data for the fourth quarter reveal that consumer debt continued to grow steadily. But consumer debt in relation to GDP – which measures the...
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