by sslifer | Oct 27, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 27, 2023 The budget deficit for fiscal 2023 was $1.7 trillion but nobody cared`. Projected budget deficits for the next ten years never get smaller and within five years are expected to exceed $2.5 trillion. As a result, the Treasury will add $20 trillion to...
by sslifer | Oct 20, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 20, 2023 Consumer sentiment today is far below the pandemic-induced recession level of 2020 and roughly where it was at the low-point of the 2008-09 so-called great recession – the longest and deepest recession since the depression in the 1930’s. One wonders...
by sslifer | Oct 13, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 13, 2023 The economic situation was already complicated with the resumption of payments on student loans, the ongoing UAW strike, and a dysfunctional Congress with the prospect of a government shutdown looming. But now the outbreak of war in the Middle East...
by sslifer | Oct 6, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
October 6, 2023 With a surprisingly large 336 thousand increase in payroll employment for September, one can make a plausible case that the Fed will boost the funds rate by 0.25% to 5.75% at the end of this month. We disagree. We are looking for no change in the...
by sslifer | Sep 29, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 29, 2023 When inflation first started to rise in mid-2020 the Federal Reserve told us that we did not need to worry because it was “temporary” and attributable to supply constraints that led to notably higher — but temporary — increases in...
by sslifer | Sep 22, 2023 | Commentary for the Week, NumberNomics Notes
September 22, 2023 This past week the Federal Reserve left the funds rate unchanged at 5.5%, which is exactly what was expected. While the Fed may not have raised the funds rate, the bond market took matters into its own hands and significantly raised every other...
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